Are we at the END of the CRYPTO Cycle? ---------------------------------------------------------------- Get the insider info on crypto investing! Join the INNER CIRCLE: https://www.boroncap.com/cryptoinnercircle ---------------------------------------------------------------- Everyone is worried that the Crypto cycle is topped already. We are at all-time highs for the liquid supply, which is very exciting. Are you worried about the day-to-day price of Bitcoin? This video will give you more data and facts that you have nothing to worry about. Always keep this in mind. Just zoom out and look at the overall picture. We are heading not based on opinions and emotions. But based on the data and facts.
Β
Key Takeaways:
00:00 Intro
00:59 Will the Crypto Cycle extend?
02:05 Data about the Crypto Cycle
02:31 Bitcoin cycle is extending
04:31 Data about the Bitcoin Peak Cycle
06:38 Fundamental side of the Bitcoin Cycle
08:26 Importance of technical analysis of Bitcoin
09:15 Pi-cycle Indicator
09:39 Bitcoin analysis using Logarithmic Growth Curves
11:13 Bullish momentum using other indicatorsΒ
14:22 Crypto and Bitcoin are the new safe-haven assets
17:00 Technical analysis using the Bitcoin Liquid Supply
----------------------------------------------------------------
Turning early crypto adopters into multi-millionaires!
Join the ππ«π²π©ππ¨ ππ§π§ππ« ππ’π«ππ₯π!
β‘οΈ http://www.boroncap.com/cryptoinnercircle
For more information, email us at: info@boroncap.com
#boroncapital #thesolomoninvestor #cryptoinvestor
----------------------------------------------------------------
β
ββ
CONNECT WITH BORON CAPITAL ON SOCIAL MEDIA β
ββ
Β
π Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BoronCapital
π€³ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/boroncapital
π¬ Twitter: https://twitter.com/boroncapital
Join the Crypto Inner Circle: http://www.boroncap.com/cryptoinnercircle
Make sure to subscribe so you never miss an episode!
β‘οΈ Become a Solomon Investor Today and see our latest investment offerings: http://legacy.boroncap.com/yourinvitation
Β
-- DISCLAIMER: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All securities involve risk and may result in significant losses. No communication by Boron Capital, LLC Inc. or any of its affiliates (collectively, βBoron Capital, LLCβ’β), through this website or any other medium, should be construed or is intended to be a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any security or otherwise to be investment, tax, financial, accounting, legal, regulatory or compliance advice. Nothing in this episode is intended as an offer to extend credit, an offer to purchase or sell securities, or a solicitation of any securities transaction.
All right, we are live. Hey, what's going on everybody? It's Zach Morrow with boron capital. We are here today, bringing you another episode of The Solomon Investor Podcast excited to sit down with Jeff volson. Second, you're coming at you we're gonna be breaking down some charts today and really covering a question that I think a lot of people are having right now is, you know, where are we at in the actual crypto cycle? You know, if we look at the four-year charts, we really should be at the end. But do the technical show that is the cycle extending? And really, what can we expect over the upcoming year, the upcoming few months? And so we're really gonna dive into the data today, hopefully, open that up. I saw a poll coming out earlier today that it was asking, you know, will this cycle extend? Is there an opportunity for a super cycle? And how does everything work out? And so when it comes to Jeff and I, and really what we focus on is we like to focus on the data and the technical and deciphering through that too, hopefully in the best way possible, try and predict the future. Jeff always says he doesn't have a crystal ball. But I think he's, I think he's, I think he's keeping it to himself right now. We don't keep anything to ourselves. We'd like to share it all with you guys. And that's what we're here to do today. So, Jeff, I'd love to have you kind of open it up, share more on the data that we've put together on the cycles and help people see what we've come to the conclusion of and kind of what we're expecting moving forward?
Β
Yeah, absolutely. Thank you, Zack, excited to be here. I think what Zack was mentioning earlier, everyone was already expecting the market to peak, you know, every winter, about every four years, we do see a cycle top in Bitcoin and subsequently, quick crypto, I believe that the last cycle top for Bitcoin was like December 17, of 2017. And then later, all coins did top the first week in January. So everyone's kind of looking around, you know, today is what December 30, of 2021. And everyone's kind of looking around saying what is going on? Well, I'll show you what's going on, the cycles are extending, and there is no denying that because the data shows that. So what we're actually looking at is it bitcoins performance, just from peak to peak. So you can see it says since the market top, in the blue, you can see that's the first cycle and 2011 to 13. Right, you can see how short that cycle is because that's really like when Bitcoin came out when it then topped subsequently. And then in the red here, you can see the other cycle top and 2014, where it had a definitely a much longer time horizon from the previous top to that top and 14. And then once again, you see in this orange one, this is the run-up into 2017, where we had a much longer cycle from the previous top and 14. And now we're looking at the purple right now, we have not had you see how all those other cycles had that really big move up, we still have not had that really exponential blow-off top moment within Bitcoin during this cycle. And you can see that we're pretty much at the very exact day of where Bitcoin topped back in December of 17. That's one place to look at it from the cycle top and other ways to look at it from the halving cycle, you can see that once again, the blue, we topped right up here it was very short is about 325 days, you can see the next cycle we then topped about 371 days after the halving cycle for Bitcoin. So when it comes to supply and half, it's about every four years, it's actually a little bit less than four years. And then in this orange here, this is 2017. Top, this is about 526 days, and now we're sitting at just about almost 600 days were about 595, where we still have not seen a top from the having cycle. So one thing that we've also analyzed is these from peak to peak, as cycles are extending by a certain amount of days, which is 574 days from the peak. So you can see it was 320-993-1477. If this were to happen again, if we were to extend 574 more days, we would be peaking on July 30 of 2023. Now, I don't we're not sure if this data is statistically significant or not because we just have two data points that show you know the 574 days increases my personal belief I know don't believe it's going to take that long to the peak. But it is undoubtedly taking longer to get through these cycles. And I think one of the reasons is, and I'll let that kind of address it as well, is potentially number one, the having cycle, right, it cuts the supply in half of Bitcoin. So there's less supply of Bitcoin being released every about four years. And that is now having a less and less effect on the market. Because it's diminishing, the amount of supply that's being released is diminishing, so it's having a lesser effect on the overall market. I also just think, you know, this is over the last about a year, this is the first time we've started to see real long term capital from institutions and public companies and even countries putting their balance sheet into Bitcoin, which I think is going to dramatically change the overall market. Zach, I'm not sure if you have any other opinions on the cycle extending and why you think it is, and then we'll maybe we could hop into just kind of the day-to-day technical and leave them off where we think it's heading over the shorter term. Yeah, I, I would, I would agree on all those points. And just to expand on them, you know, from the technical side, as you're measuring the actual data as you shared, you can see some trends from peak to peak, right, you're seeing it increase over time, obviously, as you mentioned, we only have so many cycles to go off of so historical significance and things like that, I think that we can look to the past, especially with a smaller market like this and see what has happened. But then at the same time, from a fundamental level, understanding what has really changed, and I think virtually everything has changed significantly over the last 18 months when it comes to cryptocurrency and its adoption, and
Β
overall acceptance into a broader financial world, right. So you have the institutions coming in, you've got companies like MassMutual, did over 100 million, I mean, an insurance company, right, bought in over 100 million over the last year, and then you're seeing other large technology companies coming in and you're seeing even banking institutions and things like this wanting to adopt put it on the balance sheet, and you're seeing these people who come in, these are really long term holders. And so the actual trading has changed significantly, and the fundamentals of who's purchasing it make quite a bit of different trading the way the markets interact. So from a fundamental level, I think we've seen significant shifts over the last 18 months, and even more so over the last, you know, eight to 12 months, and that's only continuing to increase. So the adoption is increased significantly. And we're only going to see that continue, as it continues to balance out. So, you know, kind of shifting from a fundamental level, I think that helps extend the cycles, because you're going to see more stability in those cycles, but then you still have the underlying technical of the halfing, which is what brings the cycle into play in the first place. Right. So, you know, there's, there's a lot of considerations as far as balancing and, you know, that's why, you know, at the end of the day, we want to look at the actual technicals and come back to everything and really kind of take a look on an unbiased level and process through which change was shifted and, and how we want to interact inside that market. And so that's probably why it's, it's best to, like I said, shift over into some of the technicals and really look at where we're at today, what the data is showing us, and maybe what we can expect, you know, over the upcoming weeks and months. Yep, totally. And I think what's, you know, I think a lot of people will kind of put you at ease I've heard a lot of people are really worried about maybe the cycle is already topped, there are quite a few things you can look at. And I'll show you where we're at the day today. But for example, you can look at like moving averages, every cycle top, we've been over the two-year moving average multiplied by five, you can see back at the very first peak, the second cycle, the third cycle, and now we're obviously at the fourth cycle, we haven't even come close to hitting that we bounced off of it, but we never actually broke through it earlier this year. And then we subsequently went to an all-time high. Another great one you guys can look at is the PI cycle top indicator, which is just across moving averages. But that's timed every cycle top pretty much almost to the day, which is pretty unbelievable. It did it back in 65k. You can see we're not even close to those moving averages crossing for this pie cycle top indicator. And maybe the last one I'll show you which there's quite a few. It's just a logarithmic growth curve. You use log charts to analyze assets over long periods of time, especially those that have a lot of volatility. And you can see that every cycle it's come to the very top of the log curve, which once again has not even come close to this cycle whatsoever. So I think it's important to understand the overall macro I always do that first and just look at from an overall You know, large scale picture of where we are at and potentially the cycle and where the macroeconomy and macro-finance are heading. And it's quite obvious that we're set up for mass adoption. But on the day-to-day to give you an idea of where we're at, we're looking at Bitcoin right now, when we study Bitcoin, in particular, when looking at cryptocurrencies, because it has over 40% of the dominance of the market. And typically, when Bitcoin moves in one direction, the rest of the crypto market follows. So you can see, we haven't had one of those blow-off-top events. Since that 55% correction, we've had nice two-leg moves upward, we did break into an all-time high right around 69k. And now we have created some resistance when price action has been going down, we had a large candle, we started to consolidate, we broke through the resistance, and now we're retesting and using resistance as support. So on a technical level, this happens quite often, you'll identify certain resistance zones. And what happens is that resistance typically flips into support. And that is exactly what is happening right now. A few other indicators market cipher, for example, there are two things that we look at, you can see this green line right here, when it flips green, after a very volatile move downwards, it flips green. And then we see green dots, which are identified by these momentum waves, then obviously, the green dots,
Β
that's a very bullish sign. We saw that back after we had that big correction. We also like to pair that with two other things, which I'll show you right now, which is the RSI which is the relative strength index. So when we have a downward sloping of the RSI, and then we break this trend, we have a line that's green, we have two green dots. And then the last one we like to look at is the MACD, when the blue line flips over the red, and all those other things are aligned, we typically see some really, really large growth ahead after that happens, which we saw about 131% increase. Last time we saw this happen. And again, we had that happen all the way back here when Bitcoin was as low as 9600. We had the green.we had the green line, we had the RSI breaking a trend right here. And then we had the MACD flip, and we went all the way up from under 10 grand to 65 grand. So on a tactical level, it is looking very bullish. You can see the RSI is starting to make higher lows down here, which is just shows a flip of the bullish momentum and likely price because what we look for is bullish divergence, which means that the price is still going down. But these other signs are showing more strength in the market. And that's what's happening right now. So we're actually more bullish, even though there's a lot of fear in the market. And everyone's really worried that we just topped we are not under that belief. We do believe that we're going to continue into early January and the first quarter of next year pretty strong. We do think that there's a 1x factor, which is you know, what's going on with the overall stock market equity market, real estate market, we think that'll also have an impact on cryptocurrency because it is a pretty speculative market, to begin with. So if other markets start to sell off, we do think that will absolutely affect the crypto market. But if the other markets can hold on, we think there's a lot of bullish momentum for bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Yeah, absolutely appreciate you walking through that. And so, you know, a big picture like Jeff shared, whenever we are processing markets as a whole, you have to process markets as a whole. It's not just the crypto market, but the correlation between other markets and how those things are working against or for momentum within sight crypto, you know, I had a conversation with, you know, pretty renowned trader, while back seems Grant Williams and Grant was sharing back in 2008. You know, at that time, everybody used gold as the inflation hedge. And interestingly enough, you know, whenever the stock market being crashing, gold did drop as well. And everybody said, well, well, if gold's dropping, how is that an inflation hedge? And the reality was because gold was maintaining its price relative to stocks, and people were having to utilize some of their gold to cover their positions over in the stock market. And so, you know, whenever we process that, I believe crypto and Bitcoin, in particular, has become the new safe-haven asset as far as a store against inflation and a hedge against inflation. And while we may see the impact on the downside, if you had a major move in the stock market to the downside, I think that relative, it'll continue to outperform in this market overall, we'll see the long term strength relative comparatively to the other market. So it'll be interesting to see how things continue to play out. But as an overall long-term picture, I mean, obviously, this market is when we think that will continue to outperform and be strong into the future. As far as the midterm and short term. Obviously, there are variables that are outside of everyone's control. But as we look at everything on a technical level, we do feel over the coming months strongly about where we're at, we don't think that we've hit a top, we believe that we will continue to see upside potential. As long as you know, outside variables remain the same. And we do think that there is an opportunity for cycle the cycle extending based on new fundamentals and changes and so but I guess, but I guess, you know, the verdict still remains to be seen. We're excited about what's to come. You know, for those of you guys watching and love to hear a little bit more about your thoughts, if you think you know, the same thing. Let us know down in the comments. If you think that you've got some different perspectives, we'd love to hear kind of your insight and comments down below. So love to hear kind of your feedback. But that's what we've got for today. I
Β
mean, Jeff, do you want to add anything before we close out? Yeah, I would just say, you know, we're coming up on the new year, there is some uncertainty in the market just with, you know, them slowing down the money printer and potentially raising rates and things like that. So everyone is a little bit worried. And you have this going on with the money printing, and everyone is just infinitely printing. So I think what's important, yes, we like to look at kind of shorter-term time horizons. But to be honest, it's really important to understand the macro. And what is happening is bitcoin is flooding off of exchanges into cold wallets, the places where it cannot be sold, shown in all this read, look how much read there is over the last 18 months, that just shows conviction because people are moving into places where it can't be sold. So they believe the price is going to go up. So they want to protect it. So if you look at that, and then you look at, you know, the liquid supply, which means, you know, where is it bitcoins being held in cold storage, offline, like in a thumb drive, it's in an illiquid place where it can't be sold quickly. And we are at all-time highs for the liquid supply, which is very, very exciting. So if you ever get worried about the day-to-day price, kind of just zoom out, look at the overall picture and understand where we are likely heading not based on my opinion or your emotions, but based on the data and the facts. So hope you guys got some value and have a very, very Happy New Year. Zack, I don't know if you want to close this out for now. We're good. Happy New Year, everybody. I look forward to seeing you guys again next week. Every Thursday. We're gonna be sitting down and talking through the updates for the week. So Thursdays at 530 Eastern, make sure to subscribe so we'll see you next time. Okay, happy new year everybody. Take care
Β
Transcribed by https://otter.ai
Β