Bull or Bear? Is Bitcoin Broken? ---------------------------------------------------------------- Get the insider info on crypto investing! Join the INNER CIRCLE: https://www.boroncap.com/cryptoinnercircle ---------------------------------------------------------------- Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin? Is Bitcoin too volatile to invest in? These are some of the questions answered on this live show. If you're planning to invest in Bitcoin or you're curious about how it works, this live show is for you. When in doubt, zoom out! Be prepared for the volatility. Look for the opportunity in volatility. Educate yourself about bitcoin to manage the risk of investing in Bitcoin. Join our weekly live show to learn more about Bitcoin! Key Takeaways: 0:00 Intro 4:40 Bitcoin is not for me 5:21 Bitcoin is Volatile 6:11 Biggest objection about Bitcoin 7:17 Investing in regular vs. Bitcoin 9:56 I'm too late for the game 10:00 Market Cap vs. Bitcoin Price 15:28 Deflationary explained 18:31 Alt Coin outperforming Bitcoin 22:48 Bitcoin Trend explained based on data ----------------------------------------------------------------
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The Solomon Investor show this is what we share the wealth strategy of the world, the wisest man, King Solomon, and we translate it to you, the 21st-century investor covering everything you need to know, for wealth, faith and excellence. This is an exciting show. Alright, so you guys have been asking about crypto, what is boron capital doing, and crypto. For those of you who don't know, we specialize in funds in self-storage and mobile home parks, and cryptocurrency, and the voices are loud, you're requesting, we want to know exactly what you're doing, how it works. And then you've had a lot of objections, a lot of really good objections, like, I don't have time, it's too deep, it's a little volatile, I don't understand it. And so we're going to break the myths and really cut between all the camouflage all the things that man that if you're just out there looking in the news, it's really mucky and hard to understand. But with a wealth of principles that will teach you There is massive money to be made. And I want to actually help you transition, change your perspective on cryptocurrency, and how it just might be transforming your entire portfolio in the near future. Alright, so we've listened, you've requested, we've listened, we're going to have a live Crypto Show every single Thursday at 530, Eastern 430 Central. So right here, you guys are going to have everything you need to know on how to take your investments in crypto to the next level. So again, subscribe to this channel and hit the bell icon. So you're notified every single time our newest videos are about to come out. And then share your comments. This is going to be really big on comments. We're going to have lots of data, lots of data points. And so all your questions from this show will be answered potentially on the next show. Alright, so in our crypto fund in the Division of boring capital, it's on the crypto side, we have four partners. So this is a fun show, you're going to get to see the interaction between all four of us and only introduce everyone now. So we have Jeff second your who's our Chief Investment Officer. We have awesome Bernard, who's our portfolio manager. We've got Zachary Morrow, our VP of investor relations. So you guys who have invested in the last four years, you've built a really strong relationship with Zack, and obviously myself, CEO and President of the fund. Okay, so right now we're going to dive deep into some objections. So we're going to share some of those market objections that you guys are all having, and then how to actually break through those. So I'm going to open it up to Jeff Austin and Zack and, Zack, we'll just start with you. What's one of those objections you're hearing right now in the crypto market of people wanting to get in or seeing volatility or not knowing what to do to how to make their best investment?
Yeah. So, you know, it's really an interesting picture. Because I have people that are all over the board, right? You've got obviously like the people on this show right now, all of us. We absolutely love the cryptocurrency market blockchain technology and believe fully in what it's going to do to transform things globally. Right, the utility is there. And right now, it's just in a lot of discovery. But when I'm out talking to people, I really have a lot of people that come all the way from the portion where their full sense. They're all about it. And then I've got other people who say things like zakat feels like unregulated voodoo, like, it's absolutely like, this wild, wild west, where people just seem like, it's like a gold rush. It's a bubble. It's volatile. And, you know, you know, one of the things that I really process when people say, you know, things, like, it's just not for me, yeah, because I go back to the data. You know, that's something that I hear a lot is, you know, you know, it's just not for me, you know, I'll let other people try that thing. And I'm just going to kind of stick to what, to what I know. Yeah. What I think people need to understand is that the power of educating and informing yourself is the number one thing you can do right now. And that's why we're putting this show on for everybody here is so that they can educate themselves around the market. So even if you're not going to invest right now, I would encourage you to continue to educate yourself of what this is, and not just write this off as something that you know is not for you. Because what I would tell you is that, regardless of if you think it's for you, or not, eventually it's going to be for everybody in the world. And it's going to impact everything we do in everyday life in a lot of different ways when it comes to technology. So, you know, if you're one of those people that's sitting on the sidelines, and it's not for you, I implore you to spend time educating yourself show up on the weekly lives and ask questions, get the education because, you know, this is a market right now, where studies actually have come out already that over the last few years, if your traditional portfolio, your traditional 6040 portfolios You would have had 5% allocated into Bitcoin, it would have not only to reduce the volatility of your portfolio, but it would have what is it? Jeff would have doubled the returns? Yeah, more than doubled. Yeah. So you reduce your volatility by being exposed here. And it would have more than doubled your returns over the last few years. So that's, that's something that I think people just don't get. And so, you know, I'll probably let Jeff speak on this next point. But the volatility it's too risky. It's a bubble. You know, before I pass it over, though, I will say, you know, it's funny, you know, one of the most renowned investors in the world, Ray Dalio just a few years ago, I think back in 2016 2017, actually said it is speculative, and it is a bubble. But now as of this year, Ray has added it to his portfolio, and he said he'd rather invest in Bitcoin than a bond. So the shifts in the market are happening, people are waking up to the idea, we're seeing it happen, we're seeing it change. And so regardless of whether you think it's for you or not, I will tell you, it absolutely is for you, and you need to start becoming more aware of it. So I'll pass it over to Jeff. So Jeff, what are some of the things that you know, you're hearing on a regular basis?
Yeah, I think the biggest thing, the biggest objection we hear is on volatility. So it's just too volatile. And people associate volatility with risk and volatility does not necessarily mean risk. It is more of like a short-term fluctuation in price risk, we view more on a long-term basis and we view risk because we're truly capital allocators. Yes, we do actively manage part of the portfolio. But a lot of people just hear volatility, they get really worried and they think that they're going to lose all their money. And the time when you're actually losing money is when you're kind of short-term, emotionally trading your investment in the market. And I think it's really important to just have a longer-term perspective on cryptocurrency. That's how you get over the volatility. And here's one thing I was just talking to the might, the mayor of Miami here. And he was like, hey, what's one thing that a lot of people don't understand about cryptocurrency? So I told him two things. Number one, it's investing in protocols, not businesses. So they're evaluated differently, right? It's a whole shift of shifting from investing in a business to investing in a protocol, which is pretty much computer code. And number two is the volatility issue, which we're speaking about here, which, how I associated is anything with a low market cap is going to have extreme volatility. Right? So how I like to relate it to is like, an infant baby, right? It's, it's brand new to the world. It's super happy one minute, and it's it could be crying and screaming the next minute, that's how assets also act if there's extreme volatility because they have smaller market caps. But when you zoom out, you start to understand the type of returns here that we're talking about. If you look in the top right-hand corner, right, Bitcoin, believe it or not, has done 20,000,000% Since 2011, to 2021, if you look in the top right-hand corner, the annualized return is 230%. So does it have volatility? Absolutely, but it's actually good volatility because when you understand the long-term picture, you understand how much this asset has gone up. And if you look at previous peaks here, the next bear market doesn't even come close to where the previous peak was, right? We're looking at 2011 Here we're looking at subsequently in 2014 2017. And now we had the high and you know if we are in a bear market or not, which will I'm sure will speak to we're not even close to where the previous all-time high was. So I think it's just incredibly important to zoom out and understand that yes, there's volatility that doesn't necessarily mean risk. But if you invest long-term dollar cost average, you're likely to do pretty well at least based on history.
It's good it's really good. I think guesses Solomon Investor, Zack made a really good point about maybe you're not sure if this is for you or not. What a Solomon Investor does is you gain wisdom on wealth strategies. And what he mentioned was Ray Dalio Well, there's literally a handful, a handful of massive large influencers, who are completely against it. And literally, now it's a staple in their funds. It's a staple in the funds that they had for their investors. So we've got to call a timeout cut the emotions This is why it's so good to learn. And what are some of the other objections you guys are hearing right now? Austin or Zach, what's something that you're hearing right now that's maybe it's your doctor, it's your guy who's fast pace your lawyer. He's too busy to actually learn he's, he has some other objections or some other hurdles. what some have an objection there.
One thing that I hear is, I'm too late to the game bitcoins already over 50,000 And what I got to say to that is you just need to zoom out So right here, you can see bitcoins made higher highs and higher lows. Since inception, it's, it's very clear that we are exponentially growing over time. As Jeff mentioned, volatility is part of the game. And if you know how to manage fun, you could use volatility to your advantage. So, to provide an example here, last Bull Run, we had literally nine corrections of over 25% or more averaged around 34% of dip. Today, right now we are 30% of all-time highs. So while it's you feel like you're too late, we really do not, it's actually, today, it is a great time to be adding to your portfolio. And so that's one objection, objection that I hear a lot is I'm too late and don't get confused with the market cap and the price of a coin. Because the price of a coin could be really high. But that doesn't mean anything, it's the market cap is the market cap higher not. Bitcoin is below 1 billion. So I would say that, and that means it's literally Apple, I think, is 2.4 trillion as a company alone. So Bitcoin is almost a third of the size of just one company, we are very early and just Patience pays.
Yeah, like that, you know, when it comes to processing, you know, everything, you know, actually was, was shared on this, just had a Forbes article come out. And in the article, I was discussing, when in doubt, zoom out. I mean, we get, to focus on the emotions. And so you know, we share this with our investors on a regular basis, which is, you need to be prepared for the volatility, and know that we're not scared of the volatility, we are actually looking forward to the opportunity it creates. And so when we're looking at everything on a grand scale, we have to be processing, you know, investing in utility, investing in real value in finding those opportunities. And then realizing that in times of volatility, we're actively managing the portfolio, and you should be doing the same, you know, as a listener, educating yourself understanding the market, and then finding the right spots to grow in that education. So that you can manage actively and find that real value and be prepared for those things. So they're not something you're afraid of, there's something you're prepared for, right. So it's not about avoiding risk entirely. It's about managing it. And when you understand how to manage it properly, you can take advantage of this volatility, knowing that the market as a whole is something we believe in tremendously over the long term. But in the short term, there's an opportunity created in these ups and downs, and we seek to take advantage of it. So don't get too emotional. When in doubt, zoom out.
I really like that. I think it's Michael sailor who has the analogy of when you put your AI under a microscope, and you really pull in and you get down into the actual atoms where the blood cells are, are stimulated. Literally, the volatility is massive. I mean, it looks, it looks like her, Rochelle. And it looks like there's so much crazy things happening, you need to call timeout, cut that thing off, I mean, just get rid of it. But then you actually pull out and it's just the regular eye, it's actually stabilized. And so there are so many perspectives. And that's a great reminder, that perspective is everything. So I think one problem that a lot of investors have, that I'm running into them hearing from you guys is I have a money manager for all my things in the stock market. I don't have a money manager for the things that are in the crypto market, therefore I have to go do it by myself. And that's not my expertise. And that's then my, my gap my problem. So just 10,000 for the big picture, if it's not already known. Question my assumptions for you guys. We do two things. One, we do massive education's, we've got an inner circle that you guys can join, to do massive education, we show you exactly what we're doing exactly why we're doing it so that if you're not accredited, you can just do the same thing. You can follow our lead. And then we actually obviously run hedge funds. So you can actually say, Hey, I'm the guy, I have a high net worth and I'm a high net worth individual. I don't want to learn it all. I just want to know enough about the basics. But then this is what we do full time. This is not something we play with. This is what we do full time and I want to compliment Austin is normally behind the scenes so he's the if you've seen in the financial documentaries and that he's like the high tech nerd in the back corner who's so smart, and he's a CPA, the accounting background, all the charts, and stuff, the optics and the metrics like he literally swims all day long in that space. And why we have partnered with Jeff and Austin is because they have a wealth of strategic knowledge. And that's why we bring that into to this fund because we look at the highest, the highest should Tzedek individuals, and we bring them into a fun where you can actually continue what we have created last 15 years, which is 300 plus transactions and no one's lost money. So we're looking to actually allow you guys to come into this new world and prosper. Alright, so now some fun stuff. Let's go into the state of the market. Jeff takes us into a deeper dive into what's happening right now in the market.
Yeah, so as far as how the history of markets at least cryptocurrency has fluctuated, has been on something called the halving cycles. So Bitcoin actually cuts its supply in half, just under every four years. So it's called the terminology is actually disinflationary, right? So it actually is releasing supply it's not truly deflationary, because it is releasing supply. Because people mined for Bitcoin, we know exactly how much bitcoin is released per day. And every about four years that supply of Bitcoin actually decreases in half. So we have an operating on this having cycle, which is typically three years of the bull market, one year of a bear market. Now what has been happening recently, I'm going to show you a few things. And just to go back to what awesome was saying it's in bitcoins in a store of value market, this gold strip right here is the percent that it has out of the store value market point 7%. That's pretty low. So are we too late? Probably not. But what I want to show you here is this is Bitcoin from having so this at the very bottom of the left-hand corner, in this chart, that's where the halving cycle actually starts, then you'll see to the right, we'll see cycle one from Oh, nine to 12, we saw a peak in the blue right here, which was about 325 days after the halving. Okay, the second one, we saw a peak from 2012 to 2016. That was about 370 days. Okay, the next cycle in 2017, that we saw, we had a peek at right around 526 days. And now we're into our fourth cycle. And if this peak expense extended, obviously, each cycle is starting to extend, it's looking like we are about 109 days out just based on the previous length of growth from the halving to the top. So if we were, you know, on a time basis, we're likely heading to the top of the market, closer to q1, very end of q1, beginning of q2. As far as like where we're on price, we think we have a very long way to go. One other interesting thing and the reason why we study Bitcoin, guys is because the rest of the market operates off of Bitcoin because it has a large amount of dominance of the market. So what we're looking at here, and you'll see how much this has shifted, because all these other coins, altcoins have started to come out, and more than about 14,000 altcoins right now. And you can see it written back in 2017, the dominance of the market was about 95%. So Bitcoin had about 95% of all of the money in cryptocurrency, right? In 2017, a lot of people started to look around and say, oh, there's these other all coins, well, maybe I should start to invest some money into those, right, so the dominance of Bitcoin fell dramatically, all the way down to about 36%. Now we headed back up towards the bear market. And this is what we strategically do, as we progress through the bull market, we start to lower our Bitcoin position and increase our all coin position because at least how history has functioned as all coins tend to dramatically outperform Bitcoin, as the cycle continues to progress. And that's what we've started to see more and more even this cycle is starting to continue. And now we're starting to see the Bitcoin dominance drop, just like it did towards the end of the cycle, and 17 and then ultimately going into 2018. So on a time basis, we think, you know, no one's has a crystal ball and knows exactly when something's going to happen. But we do believe just based on history, how the cycles are expanding, there are at least about three months left in the cycle. But on a price standpoint, if you analyze, which I'm sure Austin is going to pull up here in a second if you analyze what's going on with the price, we do believe that there's quite a lot of growth with price just based on how the previous market cap has grown. We do believe there's a right between like a two to 3x left in price. So on a time basis, we're getting closer on a price basis, we believe we still got a lot of room to grow. And I just want to share one thing that's really would likely help kind of a long-term perspective in the market and we can go more in-depth into more advanced things. But if you look at Bitcoin over a longer period of time, these are on-chain metrics. These are metrics that get pulled from the bitcoins blockchain. This is the exchange net position change. That means that when bitcoin is moving on to exchanges, that's more of a bearish sign, which is this green right here, right? Because that means that people are moving Bitcoin to a place where it can be sold. If you look in 2017, and even back in 2014, a ton of green here, right, because people were moving Bitcoin on an exchange to likely sell it, we saw that in 2017, a lot of green here. But what's been different over the past a year and a half, we've seen a ton of red, which is people moving Bitcoin off of exchanges into cold wallets, where it cannot be sold, which is very exciting. Because Bitcoin primarily is supply and demand-driven. And when you take out the supply, you're pretty much just left with demand as this market has continued to grow. So awesome. Not sure if you want to share a few charts on where you see this cycle at. I think you have a few you want to share there. Yeah, I'll share
one with you guys right now. So this is the Bitcoin peak cycle, we use a couple of different forecasts to judge where we are in the cycle, there's obviously not just one, stock, the flow is great. But here's the peak cycle based on this, we're looking at a little bit of a long bull market than just next year, and still around the same price target of 175,000. So based on this and the other. The other forecasts for us are, we're not just listening to one religiously, and we're kind of dynamically looking at all of them. This one also complements how the cycle matures. So each cycle previously has extended 574 more days from peak to peak. So based on this logic, we're looking at July 30, 2023. So this is where we're saying it's a little bit longer. And it comes out to around 175,000, which is about three to four times where we are right now. So this is just one of the indicators we use. And yeah, so it's always a constantly evolving model we're following.
Yeah, you know what, one thing that I appreciate you guys sharing is, we look at the data and we let the data tell us what's happening, guys, that's what you that's where you have to spend your time focused, and you can't be biased around what happened before, you know, a lot of people, you know, if we just think about things outside of the crypto market, you know, I hear a lot about, you know, time in the market versus, you know, trying to do the right thing. And, you know, this is what history has done. And this is how things have always gone. And I would just challenge you on that to always question your assumptions. And say, just because it went like this before, doesn't mean it's going to go like that, again, we need to allow the data to do the talking. Because everything has been shifting, right. I don't think anybody would argue that the world looks a little bit different today in 2021 than it did last year in 2020. And extremely different than it did in 2019. And so as things evolve, we always have to call a timeout, question our assumptions, and look, look out into the markets and decide where do we want to be? How do we want to allocate where's the world going? So we can use history to create, some assumptions and frameworks, but then we need to be able to look into the future and process where things are at and where they're going based on likely scenarios, and then use probability to adjust and set ourselves up. You know, I think, Jeff, it's 15 different indicators right now on the market that we're holding, correct? Yeah, we don't even care. I mean, everyone wants to know, the timeframe. We don't care about the timeframe, what we actually care about is the objective data that's primarily shown through technical, and on-chain metrics, so yeah, we have 15 metrics that have hit each one of these metrics. I've checked the box and 14 and in 2017, when we had a top, and those are the things that we're actually monitoring to make investment decisions, not necessarily Oh, on October 14 of 2021. We don't care about dates. We care about the data. Yeah, that's good. And guys, you know, just tying a couple of bows around some things, you know, are you too late? Is it late in the cycle? You know, for all those who are here wondering, is it a bear market? Well, guys, what often is shown, you know, with these pullbacks, right? How many were there on the last cycle?
Nine less? Yeah, I'll pull it up again, right now for us.
You've got nine different pullbacks at 30%. We just had another one. And so with these pullbacks, we got a process not just where we're at today, but where things are going and what the market has to offer. And with that, you know, I think about it as timing and opportunity. Right? So right now incredible opportunity to be processing how to allocate and move more in, right. And then we want to continue to watch the data, and then allow that data to speak around our capital allocation, as the different indicators are allowing us to see where we're at in the cycle. So it's not just about time, it's about what the date is doing, and then being prepared to take advantage of those things during that time. So I appreciate you guys sharing that.
One more perspective I want to give is the big picture, but in laymen terms, so that would be this understanding that for the guy who's like, Yeah, I'll just invest on Robin Hood, or I'll just, you know, put my money in Bitcoin and hold it, I'll just do it. This is a market, that you can't just be your own money manager, unless you're going to go deep, and you're going to become intimate with what we're actually talking about. So if you have time, and you want to do it yourself, then you need to join our inner circle, it will tell you exactly what we're doing exactly all the specifics. And you can go then dive deep and go into all the logistics yourself. And then you'll do well. But this is not something that you just kind of throw-in. Because when the pullbacks happen, you're not then doing what we're doing. So the wealth strategy, the world's wisest man, we're following it. And we shift, we're versatile and agile, we're looking at the data, not the emotions of the public. So if you follow the emotions of the public, then your emotions are being controlled, and you're putting things where their emotions are, which is you always, it's always a loose loss. So when so think about a seesaw in trading the altcoins. And then the Bitcoin itself, when Jeff was saying we hold a lower portion of Bitcoin. And then we trade these narratives in the altcoins. This is all strategic analysis at the highest level of an advanced investor. So when the pullback happens, we win. When the value increases, we win. That's the side you want to be on. So, guys, you got to be on this show every single week against going to be 530, Eastern 430 Central. Also streamed live on YouTube, obviously, we'll put it back on our channel. Again, hit the subscribe button so that you're notified every single time a new video comes out, hit the bell icon. And then for those of you who want to actually have the data you want to get in on the inside of what we're doing. We're just sharing space specifically, in real-time, what specifically we're doing in our inner circle. So if you want to be a part of our inner circle, go to boron cap.com forward slash crypto inner circle. We'll put that in the show notes. Again, guys, share your questions, any questions that you have for us. We look forward to answering them on the next show. Thank you, Jeff, Austin, and Zack again. We'll see you guys next time. Next week. Until next time, Solomon Investor Podcast setting out two years
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